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TOPIC: Why "Predicting the Future" Is Failing Us — And What to Do Instead

DATE: Wednesday, October 28, 2026

SESSION DESCRIPTION: What if everything you've been taught about forecasting is wrong?

For decades, corporations and governments have bet their futures on a single number, a single scenario, a single confident prediction. The result? Blindsided leaders, blown budgets, and billion-dollar miscalculations in a world that refuses to behave predictably.

In this thought-provoking talk, Dr. Ron Dembo draws on insights from his latest book, Risk Thinking: … in an uncertain world, to challenge the forecasting orthodoxy that dominates boardrooms and government halls. He'll show why clinging to a single prediction leaves leaders dangerously exposed — and how a richer, more honest view of the future can transform the way organizations make decisions.

Dr. Dembo will contrast the traditional playbook used by executives and risk leaders with a bold new framework that codifies common sense, embraces radical uncertainty, and equips leaders to navigate the risks that actually matter.

He'll also share how he is putting these ideas into practice through his new company, RiskThinking.AI, which is tackling one of the greatest challenges of our time: climate change.

Expect to leave with a sharper lens on risk, a healthier skepticism of forecasts, and a practical approach to steering your organization through the unknown.

SPEAKER BIO: Dr. Ron Dembo, CEO & Founder, RiskThinking.ai, has been an associate professor at Yale, an entrepreneur, consultant, CEO, and author.

Over a career spanning more than 25 years, Ron has founded multiple companies, including Algorithmics, where as CEO he built the world’s largest enterprise financial risk management software provider.

Currently, as the Founder and CEO of riskthinking.AI, Ron leads the development of cutting-edge AI-driven solutions to measure and address risk in an increasingly uncertain world. His work focuses on equipping institutions with tools to navigate systemic risks and make informed decisions.

Click for Dr. Dembo’s full bio

EVENT SCHEDULE:

• 4:00-4:30pm EDT Registration

• 4:30-5:30pm EDT Presentation (& livestream broadcast)

• 5:30-7:00pm EDT Networking reception with the speaker

LOCATION: The Lodge on Queen, 251 Queen Street West, Toronto, ON. (Please note: this session will be held on the second floor of an historic building. If you have mobility issues that prevent you from using stairs, please send an email as soon as possible to community@societyofERMprofessionals.com so that the venue can make any necessary arrangements to accommodate your needs.

The Society’s Events Programming Committee has identified the following potential topics for future events.

We welcome feedback from the ERM community!

Click let us know which of these topics you would be most interested in hearing about over the next 6-12 months. Please also suggest other issues you would like to see covered.

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2. THE NEXT GENERATION OF RISK LEADERS: TALENT MANAGEMENT FOR THE AI ERA. ERM is evolving—and so is the risk professional. Discover the leadership competencies, AI fluency, business skills, and strategic mindset that will separate tomorrow’s most effective risk leaders from the rest.

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